The story of this market
The typical home in ZIP 95307 sells for about $510,000, or $295 per square foot.
Prices are up +19% from a year ago, so sellers still have some momentum. Homes take about 34 days to sell. HUD's fair market rent for a two-bedroom is $1,000 a month.
ZIP 95307 — Ceres
The 95307 housing market is currently competitive, driven by strong demand for affordable single-family homes. While home values have seen some volatility, the overall trend remains positive with significant year-over-year price growth. Inventory remains tight, supporting a seller-favorable environment.
This ZIP is well-suited for families and first-time homebuyers seeking more affordable housing options compared to the Bay Area. It also attracts commuters who work in the Central Valley and value the suburban lifestyle and access to regional highways.
Median prices moved up 19.0% year over year.
Homes spend a median of 34 days on market with 3.2 months of supply — a fast-moving market.
12% of listings have cut prices · homes sell at 98% of asking — demand is running ahead of supply.
no recorded foreclosure-ledger notices (0.0 per 10,000 residents) · unemployment 6.5% · poverty 14.0% — a stable, low-distress profile.
Researched annual trajectory for this ZIP, from published historical series
Solid: researched ten-year history · dotted: 1 / 3 / 5-year projection extended from the historical 7.3%/yr trend — a deterministic estimate, not a published forecast or guarantee.
Median annual property tax paid on this ZIP's residential parcels
Solid: researched ten-year history · dotted: 1 / 3 / 5-year projection extended from the historical 6.6%/yr trend — a deterministic estimate, not a published forecast or guarantee.
versus the prior ACS vintage
net influx — more people moved in than out
ZCTA 95307, Stanislaus County, CA
Crime rates in Ceres are generally consistent with regional averages for Stanislaus County, with property crime being the primary concern. Local law enforcement maintains active community outreach programs to address safety trends.
Schools serving the 95307 area are primarily part of the Ceres Unified School District, which provides a range of educational options from elementary through high school. Performance ratings vary by campus, with ongoing efforts to improve student outcomes and college readiness.
The area is subject to standard California climate risks, including potential for extreme heat and seasonal air quality impacts from regional wildfires. Flood risk is managed through local drainage infrastructure and FEMA-mapped zones.
Economic momentum is driven by the area's proximity to major agricultural and logistics hubs in the Central Valley. Infrastructure improvements along the Highway 99 corridor continue to support residential and commercial expansion.
Composed from the ARED governance burden registry — tier-native tax structure (state + county + city + special districts), never averaged. State (California) — Mello-Roos Community Facilities Act Special Parcel Tax Assessment: Levies an annual direct, non-ad valorem special tax directly on the parcel's secured property tax bill to fund designated community infrastructure (e.g., roads, sewer facilities, school facilities, emergency services) and repay municipal debt bonds. State (California) — California Homeowners' Property Tax Exemption: Reduces the taxable assessed value of the qualifying owner-occupied principal residence by $7,000 against the county assessment roll, generating a direct tax savings of approximately $70 annually (computed as $7,000 × 1% base rate). State (California) — California Proposition 13 Ad Valorem Real Property Tax: Establishes a base ad valorem tax rate capped at 1.0% of assessed value plus voter-approved local indebtedness and direct assessments (typically resulting in an effective tax rate of 1.1% to 1.25%). County (Stanislaus County, California) — Ad Valorem Property Tax: The base property tax rate is 1% of the assessed value, as mandated by California Proposition 13, plus additional voter-approved levies for local agencies and schools.
Most residents commute by driving, with Highway 99 serving as the primary artery for travel toward employment centers in Modesto and the broader Central Valley. Public transit options are limited, consisting primarily of local bus services.
The area features several community parks and green spaces, including Smyrna Park, which offers sports facilities and picnic areas. Shopping and dining options are concentrated along the main commercial corridors of Mitchell Road and Whitmore Avenue.
The rental market is characterized by low vacancy rates and consistent demand, particularly for single-family home rentals. Investor interest remains active due to the relative affordability compared to coastal California markets.
The local economy is anchored by agriculture, food processing, and logistics, benefiting from the region's central location in California. Major employers include regional distribution centers and public sector entities.
The area is served by Highway 99, providing critical north-south access. Local transit is provided by Stanislaus Regional Transit Authority.
Development is focused on residential infill and the expansion of commercial services along major arterial roads to support the growing population.
The Stanislaus County Assessor's office manages property valuations, adhering to state-mandated assessment cycles and Proposition 13 guidelines.
Parcels are subject to various special districts, including the Ceres Unified School District and local water/sewer utility districts.
Property insurance availability is stable, though premiums are influenced by regional wildfire risk assessments and general California market trends.
The state continues to see shifts in domestic migration, with inland areas like Stanislaus County attracting residents from higher-cost coastal regions.
California operates as a non-judicial foreclosure state, with specific notice and cure periods defined by state law.
Sellers are required to provide a comprehensive Transfer Disclosure Statement detailing the condition of the property and any known defects.
Data retrieved from US Census Bureau ZCTA-level tables.
Public schools whose reported address is in this area (NCES). Not attendance boundaries — schools that serve residents may sit outside it. Check the district's address locator for assignment.
- Hilmar Cheese Company Visitor Center4.610.1 mi
- Boomers Modesto4.613.2 mi
- John's Incredible Pizza - Modesto3.710.4 mi
- Sky Zone Trampoline Park49.3 mi
- Funworks Modesto4.211.5 mi
- Gallo Center for the Arts4.77.5 mi
- Stanislaus County Fairgrounds & Event Center4.26.4 mi
- Golden Corral Buffet & Grill411 mi
- John's Incredible Pizza - Modesto3.710.4 mi
- The Fruit Yard4.59.6 mi
- Hilmar Cheese Company Visitor Center4.610.1 mi
- Mary Grogan Community Park4.511.1 mi
- Brenden Theatres Modesto 18 & JBX4.37.6 mi
- Dave & Buster's Modesto3.811.7 mi
- Regal Modesto4.411.2 mi
- Modesto Children's Museum4.67.5 mi
- Great Valley Museum and Planetarium4.79.7 mi
- McHenry Museum4.77.6 mi
- Carnegie Arts Center4.76.9 mi
- The Graffiti USA Classic Car Museum4.78.7 mi
- Mary Grogan Community Park4.511.1 mi
- Graceada Park4.28 mi
- Donnelly Park4.46.2 mi
- Turlock Regional Sports Complex4.44.8 mi
- Lakewood Funeral Home & Memorial Park4.26.9 mi
- Creekside Golf Course4.28.1 mi
- River Oaks Golf Course and Event Center4.25.6 mi
- Dryden Park Golf Course4.16 mi
- Turlock Golf & Country Club4.49.8 mi
- St. Stanislaus Golf Course4.32.6 mi
- Vintage Faire Mall4.311.7 mi
- El Rematito Flea Market4.34.1 mi
- WinCo Foods4.410.1 mi
- Safeway4.29.6 mi
- Sprouts Farmers Market4.49.4 mi
- Stockton Metropolitan Airport4.229.5 mi
Theme parks, venues, golf, airports, museums, water and shopping across the area ranked by popularity within the radius shown.
A major community park featuring sports fields, playgrounds, and picnic areas.
A central retail hub providing grocery and service options for the local community.
Key-figure check: no independent anchor retained yet — first-researched cycles establish the anchor baseline this pass.